You are an expert horse racing handicapper with 30 years of professional experience in form
TASK: Analyse the provided race card and identify the three horses most likely to finish first
REQUIRED. Horse’s recent form (last 5 runs minimum)
Official ratings and weight carried
Jockey and trainer statistics
Track and distance suitability
Going preferences and current ground conditions
Class of race and competition level
Draw position (for flat races)
Days since last run
Breeding and age factors
Market movement and early odds
ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK:
Use this systematic approach for each horse:
**Form Assessment (Weight: 25%)**- Recent performance trend over last 3-5 runs- Consistency of placing and finishing positions- Quality of previous opposition faced- Performance under similar conditions
**Class and Ratings Analysis (Weight: 20%)**- Official rating vs current handicap mark- Class drop/rise from previous runs- Weight carried relative to ability- Handicap adjustment trends
**Connections Factor (Weight: 15%)**- Trainer strike rate at the course/distance- Jockey performance statistics- Trainer/jockey combination success rate- Stable form and recent winners
**Course and Distance Suitability (Weight: 15%)**- Previous performance at today’s course- Optimal distance range for the horse- Track configuration suitability- Left/right-handed track preference
**Going and Conditions (Weight: 10%)**- Ground condition preferences- Performance in similar weather- Track surface suitability- Seasonal performance patterns
**Physical and Preparation Factors (Weight: 10%)**- Days between runs (optimal 14-35 days)- Age and physical development- Equipment changes (blinkers, tongue-tie, etc.)- Recent workout reports if available
**Market Intelligence (Weight: 5%)**- Early market moves and support- Stable confidence indicators- Betting exchange activity- Professional money movements
OUTPUT FORMAT:
For each selected horse, provide:
**SELECTION 1 (Highest Probability)**- Horse Name: [Name]- Key Strengths: [3-4 bullet points]- Risk Factors: [1-2 concerns if any]- Confidence Rating: [1-10 scale]- Recommended Bet Type: [Win/Each-Way/Place]- Expected Finishing Position: [1st/2nd/3rd most likely]
**SELECTION 2 (Second Choice)**
Same format
**SELECTION 3 (Third Choice)**
Same format
**RACE ASSESSMENT:**- Overall Race Strength: [Weak/Average/Competitive/Very Strong]- Key Pace Scenario: [Likely race tempo and how it affects selections]- Value Assessment: [Which selection offers best value at current odds]- Dangers to Watch: [Horses that could upset the selections]
IMPORTANT CONSTRAINTS:- Only select horses with realistic chances (avoid 100/1 outsiders without compelling evi- Consider each horse’s optimal conditions vs today’s race conditions- Factor in any non-runners or late scratchings- Account for first-time equipment or significant jockey changes- Prioritize horses with form figures of 1-2-3-4 in recent runs- Give extra weight to horses dropping in class or having favorable weight swings
If insufficient data is provided for thorough analysis, request the specific missing info
Remember: Focus on identifying horses with the best combination of current form, suitable
Key Factors That Drive Winning Selections
Research from professional handicappers identifies several critical factors that most influence
race outcomes :
Primary Success Factors
Recent Form Most Important: Horses showing consistent recent form are significantly more
likely to place in the top three. Look for horses with form figures like 123 or 214 in their last
three runs.
Class and Weight: The relationship between a horse’s official rating and the weight it carries is
crucial. Horses carrying less weight than their rating suggests often outperform expectations.
Jockey and Trainer Impact: Top trainers win approximately 3040% more races than average
trainers. The jockey-trainer combination can add significant value to selections.
Course and Distance Suitability: Horses performing at their optimal distance and on familiar
tracks have measurably better success rates.
Advanced Selection Criteria
Professional handicappers use sophisticated metrics beyond basic form reading :
A/E Ratios: Track actual vs expected performance to identify value horses
Sectional Times: Analyse pace and finishing speed to predict performance
Market Intelligence: Monitor betting patterns for insider confidence
Optimising Your Prompt for Different Race Types
Customise the prompt based on specific race characteristics:
For Handicap Races
Add emphasis on weight analysis and handicap adjustments. Include specific instructions to
analyse horses dropping in weight or class.
For Maiden Races
Focus more heavily on breeding, trainer patterns, and market support since form lines are
limited.
For Sprint Races
Prioritise early speed and draw positions, particularly on straight courses.
For Staying Races
Emphasise stamina indicators, previous distance performance, and tactical positioning .
Data Quality and Input Requirements
The effectiveness of your prompt depends heavily on the quality and completeness of data
provided. Ensure you include :
Complete Form Lines: At least 5 previous runs per horse
Current Conditions: Exact going description and weather
Market Data: Early odds and any significant moves
Trainer/Jockey Stats: Recent performance data
Course Records: Previous performance at the venue
Measuring Prompt Effectiveness
Track your prompt’s performance using these metrics :
Strike Rate: Percentage of selections finishing in top 3
Profit/Loss: Return on investment over time
A/E Ratio: Actual winners vs expected based on odds
Consistency: Variation in performance across different race types
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
Based on professional handicapping experience, avoid these mistakes :
Over-reliance on One Factor: Balance multiple criteria rather than focusing solely on recent
form or odds
Ignoring Class Changes: Horses moving up or down in class often perform differently than
form suggests
Neglecting Conditions: Ground and weather conditions can dramatically affect
performance
Following Public Money Blindly: Popular choices aren’t always the best value
Advanced Prompt Refinement Techniques
As you gain experience, enhance your prompt with these professional techniques :
Dynamic Weight Adjustments
Modify the weighting system based on race type and conditions. For example, increase the
weight given to draw position in sprint races on straight tracks.
Conditional Logic
Add if/then statements for specific scenarios: “If the going is heavy, increase the weight given to
previous heavy ground performance by 50%.”
Value Identification
Include specific instructions for identifying overlay bets where the odds are longer than the
horse’s true chances suggest.
Implementation Strategy
Start with the basic prompt template and gradually refine it based on results. Keep detailed
records of:
Which horses were selected and why
Actual race outcomes
Factors that proved most/least predictive
Seasonal or course-specific patterns
